The Tory leadership contest results were surprising, even by the unpredictable standards of such contests. Once more, the Tory parliamentary party confirmed its reputation for being the most deceitful electorate in Britain.
James Cleverly, a popular figure with an extensive background as a former foreign secretary, home secretary, and Tory chairman, was the clear favourite to reach the final two.
Before his confident speech at the Tory conference in Birmingham last week, Cleverly was tied for third with Tom Tugendhat in the race. His performance in that speech propelled him into a strong lead by Tuesday’s ballot.
Rogue voting and a botched plot by MPs led to James Cleverly’s shocking loss in the Tory leadership race. Indiscipline, naivety, and dirty tricks were blamed, with accusations against Grant Shapps. pic.twitter.com/EMgES0OPZk
— Politics In 60 Mins (@PoliticsIn60Min) October 9, 2024
Questions regarding his decision to initiate negotiations with the Mauritian government about the Chagos Islands handover didn’t seem to affect his chances. Nor did the perception that, as the longest-serving MP among the candidates, he represented continuity when many believed the Conservatives needed change.
Cleverly’s close friends described him as quietly confident. He was reportedly ‘shocked’ by yesterday’s outcome. While his competitors, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, were busy garnering support from Tory MPs, Cleverly was seen on the Commons terrace on Tuesday night and later at the launch of Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed.
Despite his experience, Cleverly apparently missed the underhanded tactics at play. There always are some in such contests.
Suspicion arose when, just before Tuesday’s vote, Tugendhat, the former army officer and security minister, told friends that if all MPs who pledged support to him were truthful, he would advance to the next round. His last-place finish, 11 votes behind Jenrick in second, suggested dishonesty among his supporters.
Jenrick, even after losing two votes from the previous round, seemed surprisingly optimistic. Rumours at Westminster suggested that Jenrick’s team encouraged their supporters to vote for Cleverly to eliminate Tugendhat, who had performed unexpectedly well after proposing the UK should exit the European Court of Human Rights.
Others speculated that Cleverly might have lent votes to Jenrick to keep Badenoch out of the final two. Regardless, Jenrick’s survival marked a significant turnaround after his unremarkable conference speech and a campaign video where he implied British special forces executed captives in Afghanistan. The exact events remain unknown due to the secret ballot nature of the vote.
WATCH: “Absolutely brutal”. An extraordinary day in the Tory leadership race as frontrunner Cleverly sensationally edged out. What just happened?
By @meg_matt1998 @tsueyek Finn LJ pic.twitter.com/wws17AoCyB
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) October 9, 2024
As always, the final stages of a Tory leadership contest involved promises of high-profile positions, overseas trips, and select committee appointments to win over rival supporters. Cleverly appeared less inclined to use these tactics compared to Jenrick and Badenoch.
The result now pits two right-wing candidates against each other for the 160,000 members’ vote, leaving no centrist option on the ballot. This situation turns the contest into a personality showdown rather than a debate of ideas, which the party desperately needs.
How Jenrick or Badenoch will reclaim seats from the Lib Dems, who dismantled the ‘Blue Wall’ in the last election, remains uncertain. With a record 72 MPs, the Lib Dems ousted four cabinet ministers and took constituencies once held by former prime ministers David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson. Jenrick versus Badenoch is likely the outcome Lib Dem leader Ed Davey hoped for.
Friends of Andy Street, a centrist narrowly defeated by Labour as the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, warned that he might quit the party if Badenoch and Jenrick make it to the runoff. Street reportedly believes the party doesn’t need two similar candidates fighting for leadership.
One Tory MP supported Badenoch, anticipating she might make mistakes and allow the party to reset. Another noted that just as Labour voters might experience regret, Tory infighting reminds them of the party’s self-destructive tendencies.
As for Cleverly’s defeat, asking a Tory MP for the truth might not yield a trustworthy answer.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some common questions asked about this news
Why was James Cleverly’s loss in the Tory leadership contest surprising?
Cleverly was the favorite and led the race after his conference speech, but was unexpectedly ousted.
Did James Cleverly make any mistakes during his campaign?
Cleverly was seen socializing instead of securing support, which may have contributed to his loss.
Why did Team Jenrick reportedly encourage supporters to vote for Cleverly?
To push Tom Tugendhat out of the race, as Tugendhat performed better than expected.
What tactics are common in Tory leadership contests?
Promises of shadow ministry jobs, overseas trips, and high-profile committee placements are used to woo supporters.
What is the potential impact of Jenrick and Badenoch being the final candidates?
Their contest may become a personality parade, failing to address the intellectual battle of ideas the party needs.
