Donald Trump holds a slim lead over Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a crucial battleground for 16 electoral votes. A poll conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Democratic Impact Research between 11 and 17 September shows Trump with 50% of likely voters’ support, against Harris’s 47%.
This close race is marked by significant demographic divides, especially among black and white voters aged 50 and above. Harris garners strong support from older black voters, with 92% backing her and only 4% supporting Trump. Conversely, Trump leads among older white voters, securing 66% support compared to Harris’s 30%.
These splits among older voters are more pronounced than the overall racial divide. Trump leads 60% to 35% among all white voters, while Harris is ahead 84% to 10% among all black voters. White voters outnumber black voters in North Carolina, giving Trump an overall lead among voters aged 50 and over, 52% to 43%. He also leads by nine points with caretakers over 50 and by 18 points with self-identified swing voters in the same age group.
North Carolina polling average shows a 1% lead for Trump over Harris after 2 new polls pic.twitter.com/p6h5rwh98O
— Ice Analytics (@ice_analytics) September 26, 2024
Among voters aged 35 to 49, the race is nearly tied, with Trump holding a slight edge of +2 in a head-to-head comparison, and Harris up by one point in a broader field. Despite perceptions that Harris performed better in the presidential debate, this has not significantly shifted momentum. White voters over 50 and Republicans believe Trump won the debate, while other groups see Harris as the winner.
The poll also highlights challenges for Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who trails Democrat Josh Stein 52% to 42%. Robinson’s deficit with independents, trailing by 17 points, contrasts with Trump’s three-point lead among the same group.
What Other Media Are Saying
- AARP poll in North Carolina shows the presidential race as a toss-up with Trump leading 48% to 46%, while Josh Stein leads in the governor’s race by 10 points. (Read more)
- AARP highlights a tight North Carolina presidential race with Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris among likely voters, particularly among older white voters, while Harris has a strong lead among younger Black voters. (Read more)
Frequently Asked Questions
Here are some common questions asked about this news
Who is leading in the North Carolina poll between Trump and Harris?
Donald Trump is narrowly leading Kamala Harris.
What demographic group is driving Trump’s lead in North Carolina?
Older white voters are driving Trump’s lead.
How do older black voters feel about Harris?
92% of older black voters support Harris.
What is Trump’s support among older white voters?
Trump has 66% support among older white voters.
How does the gubernatorial race in North Carolina look?
Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson 52% to 42%.
