If Donald Trump wants to become the first president since Grover Cleveland to win nonconsecutive terms, his campaign will need to make a number of changes, a leading political analyst warns.
Douglas E. Schoen, who has worked for both Bill Clinton and Mike Bloomberg, gave the forecast in a Saturday opinion piece written for the Daily Breezehours after he was on Fox News to provide a similar insight.
The Democratic strategist said he would still “bet on Trump” despite Harris’ recent slight lead. He reiterated that stance in the op-ed, albeit with a few caveats.
He said Trump should remain focused on the issues at hand while working harder to connect Harris to a struggling administration that, according to recent Gallup polls, has only 39 percent approval ratings.
If Trump shifts his campaign in this way to focus on issues like the economy, immigration, crime and foreign policy where Harris and Joe Biden have made no progress, it will draw attention to his own record — and that of the vice president.
If Donald Trump wants to become the first president since Grover Cleveland to win nonconsecutive terms, his campaign will need to make a number of changes, a political analyst warned Saturday.
Douglas E. Schoen, 71, made the statement Saturday in an op-ed written for the Daily Breeze, hours after he appeared on Fox News to offer similar insights
“Moreover, this would force Harris to defend the Biden administration’s record on key issues,” Schoen wrote — specifically citing “inflation, rising costs of living, and historic numbers of illegal migrants crossing the border.”
“Given that more than six in 10 (62 percent) of voters disagree with Biden’s handling of immigration, and the same 60 percent disagree with the administration’s handling of the economy, forcing Harris to defend her record should be a top priority.
References to specific future policies, such as plans to accelerate job creation through lower corporate taxes, “would put Harris on the defensive,” Schoen added. So would a potential extension of the tax cuts Trump passed in 2017, he said.
Schoen then pointed out that Trump, who once held a significant lead over Joe Biden, now trails Harris in most major polls, with the conservative down six points in the latest Morning Consult poll.
He then denied that such leads are far from “insurmountable,” before pointing to state statistics — particularly in swing states — that he said are decisive in the election.
Schoen cited a RealClearPolitics poll that showed Harris with a slight lead in three key states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
He also turned to two states that are more Trump-aligned: Arizona and Georgia.
“Neither candidate’s lead is larger than 2 percentage points in any state,” said Schoen, who worked for both Bill and Hillary Clinton. He said such differences are “well within the margin of error.”
There, the Democratic strategist said he would still “bet on Trump” despite the slight lead Harris recently saw — a position he reiterated in the op-ed, albeit with a few caveats.
This, he added, shows that the race “is still a toss-up” — even after a debate that “was undoubtedly a better night for Harris than it was for Trump.”
Former President Clinton adviser and New York City Mayor Bloomberg reiterated that even after a one-sided debate, there was no major change in the polls, giving Trump the opportunity to correct those mistakes.
This comes at a time when nearly two-thirds of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, he said – citing the results of a recent New York Times/Siena poll,
The poll, he wrote, found that 52 percent of Americans believe Harris represents “more of the same,” while 49 percent believe Trump represents “big change.”
With this in mind, Schoen explained how “tying Harris to the Biden administration is likely to prove effective,” and that since more than 62 percent of voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of immigration — and 60 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy — an attack on Harris’ record could be a major step forward if Trump takes the next step,
He then indicated that this would be a departure from the strategy Trump used during the recent debate, in which he said the politician spoke primarily directly to his already established fan base.
That was a mistake in the eyes of Schoen, who said such “rhetoric may inflame voters who were already planning to vote for the former president, but it does little to convince others” who are still undecided.
“The intense polarization and Trump’s fiercely loyal base mean he can win by avoiding a campaign focused on specific issues and instead deploying inflammatory, divisive rhetoric that appeals to a narrow group of voters,” Schoen conceded.
A week earlier, Schoen, who has served as an adviser to Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Mike Bloomberg, appeared on the network to discuss Trump’s performance in the debate and how he believed it wasn’t the proverbial nail in the coffin that others had indicated.
“But Trump’s easiest path back to the presidency is to focus on the issues, force Kamala Harris to defend the Biden administration’s record and appeal to moderates in the swing states that will decide this election.”
A few hours earlier, he was a guest on Fox News to talk more about what to expect from swing states like North Carolina, where Harris has a small lead.
“But if I had to place a bet, I’d bet on Donald Trump,” he said, citing the former president’s “good close” and that “reluctant Trump voters tend to vote on Election Day.”
“This election is as close as it gets,” Schoen told GOP pollster Justin Wallin on Saturday’s “Cavuto Live.”
“And I think Kamala Harris realizes that.”
A week earlier, he was a guest on the network to discuss Trump’s performance at the debate, and he felt it wasn’t the proverbial nail in the coffin that others had indicated.
The 2024 presidential election is 44 days away.
