Historian Allan Lichtman has finally made his prediction for the winner of the 2024 election, finding that Kamala Harris has met the key objectives for victory.
The 77-year-old professor at American University has developed his own election model, with which he has correctly predicted every presidential election winner since 1984.
He relies on an unorthodox system, ignoring polls and experts. The system is based on what he calls the “13 keys” to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 with his friend and geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The model is based on 120 years of presidential election results and even allowed Lichtman to predict Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 a month before the election.
He then used his tactics to correctly predict the outcome of the 2020 election.
Allan Lichtman, 77, has designed his own election model that has correctly predicted every presidential election winner since 1984
Explanation of the mysterious 13 keys to the New York TimesLichtman said: ‘They are 13 big, true-false questions that give a sense of the strength and performance of the White House party.
The 13 keys are: midterm election win, incumbent president, primaries, third party, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, White House scandal, incumbent president’s charisma, challenger’s charisma, failed foreign policy, and foreign policy success.
Vice President Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate, would have to lose six of these elections to be declared a loser under the model.
Since last month, she has lost only three: a party mandate/midterm elections, her incumbent position and the charisma of the incumbent president.
Two other keys seemed ‘shaky’ weeks ago: foreign policy and social unrest.
But Allan explained that only two of the thirteen keys have anything to do with the candidates: the charisma of the incumbent president and that of the challenger.
Allan said that the White House party gained seats in the House of Representatives between the midterm elections. He claimed that Democrats did better than expected in 2022, despite still losing seats in the House. So the key to the midterm election gains is false.
He then explains that a false key is good for Donald Trump.
The key to the incumbent presidency involves the incumbent president running for re-election.
“Biden has withdrawn from the race, which has cost the Democrats this important victory — it is untrue,” he told the newspaper.
If Biden had stayed in the race, Democrats would have retained the key position in the incumbent presidential election, according to Allan’s model.
The White House party avoided a primary — the third key — because Allen explained how Democrats “got smart” and united behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
This means that the key to success lies in Harris having to get off to a flying start from the starting block of the race.
Since there is no third party challenger since RFK Jr. dropped out of the race, and no other third party candidate even comes close to the 10 percent vote threshold needed to turn this key, this means it is true.
Allan said that in the short term – key point five – the economy is strong because there is no recession, making the key true.
Long-term economic growth during the current presidential term is at least as good as that of the last two terms, Allan said, going on to explain how growth during Biden’s term is much higher than growth during the previous two terms.
According to the model, this means that the key is true.
The seventh key point — policy changes — comes into play now that the White House has made major changes to national policy, Allan said.
“Rejoining the Paris Climate Accords, the CHIPS Act, the infrastructure act, the inflation-busting act, the climate change act — the core is clearly true,” he added.
While there have been sporadic protests, there has not been nearly the level of social unrest needed to turn the eighth key.
According to the creator of the model, the key to social unrest is correct.
The key to the scandal — Allan’s self-proclaimed favorite — has been seen as true in his eyes as he explained how Republicans have desperately tried to frame Biden for a scandal, but nothing has ever stuck.
He then indicated that the controversy surrounding his son Hunter Biden does not count toward the key to the scandal because it centers on the president himself — and not a family member.
Allan predicted that ‘the Democrats will keep the White House and that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States’
By the end of Allan’s prediction race, Donald Trump had lost, making the Democrats this year’s winner.
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The key to the charisma of the incumbent candidate is a ‘high threshold’, as the candidate must be a ‘unique, broadly inspiring candidate’.
But in Allan’s eyes, Harris has failed to meet that standard, making the key false.
The challenger’s charisma is the eleventh key, but because some people see Trump as a god, he appeals to only a limited audience. That means the key is true.
Based on the results of these tests alone, Allan predicted that “the Democrats will keep the White House and that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.”
However, the keys to foreign policy could tip the balance, as the Biden administration has become deeply committed to the war in Gaza.
“But even if both foreign policy keys were false, that would mean there are only five negative keys, and that wouldn’t be enough for Donald Trump to win back the White House.”
Allan said his system allows him ‘to predict the outcome of the popular election based solely on historical factors and not on polls, tactics or campaign events according to candidate preference.’
“There are a number of unpredictable factors,” he said while promoting his prediction on YouTube.
He bristles at commentators who point to one moment in recent decades when his model doesn’t hold up: the contested 2000 election, when Florida courts halted a recount in a race in which Vice President Al Gore won the most votes over George W. Bush. (He also traces it back retroactively to Lincoln’s election of 1860.)
“It wasn’t my fault… It was Florida that made the mistake, that based on the intentions of the voters… because of ballots that were thrown out, that Gore wrote in and Gore stamped, Gore should have won that election by getting out,” Allan said in his YouTube channel.
