WASHINGTON — Wesley Bell’s Significant Vote Lead in St. Louis County and Competitive Performance in St. Louis City propelled him to victory according to an Associated Press analysis of early voting results for U.S. Rep. Cori Bush in the Democratic primary in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District.
The result is the second defeat this year for a sitting Democratic representative in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Below you can see how the AP determined the winner:
CANDIDATES: Bush, Bell
WINNER: Bell
CALLED AT: 10:59 PM ET
VOTING MEETING CLOSING TIME: 8:00 PM ET
ABOUT THE RACE: The Democratic primary in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District is the latest contest this year to highlight deep divisions within the party over the war between Israel and Hamas, even as both candidates have tried to keep the district’s top local priorities at the forefront. In June, Democrat George Latimer won defeated U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman in New York’s 16th congressional district in a race that fell along similar fault lines. Both Bush and Bowman, members of the group of progressives in the U.S. House of Representatives known as ” the team“are outspoken critics of Israel’s response to the October 2023 attacks surprise attacks by Hamaswith Bush saying the nation is engaged in a “campaign of ethnic cleansing” against Palestinians. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee super PAC, which helped bring down Bowman, has backed Bell, the St. Louis County district attorney. Bush has the backing of House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The 1st District is in eastern Missouri along the Mississippi River on the border with Illinois. It includes the city of St. Louis and part of surrounding St. Louis County.
WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Bush was first elected in 2020 after with a narrow victory over long-serving U.S. Rep. William Lacy Clay in the Democratic primary. That year, in a similarly shaped district, Bush’s victory was made possible by her big win in the city of St. Louis. That more than offset her narrow loss in St. Louis County, even though the county accounted for more than half of the total vote in the district. Clay defeated Bush in St. Louis County, 49 percent to about 46 percent, while Bush far outpolled Clay in the city, 52 percent to 42 percent. A third candidate, Katherine Bruckner, captured almost 7 percent of the vote in the city and 5 percent in the county.
To defeat Bell’s opponent in the primary, Bush would have had to win a large margin in the city of St. Louis and remain competitive in St. Louis County.
However, Bell built a significant and consistent lead in St. Louis County and held Bush to a smaller lead in the city of St. Louis.
Bush was on track to do slightly worse in the city than her 2020 performance and significantly worse in the much larger jurisdiction of St. Louis County, which makes up about 59% of the 1st District’s population. When AP called the race, Bush led Bell in the city by just over 8 percentage points, slightly less than the 10-point margin she had four years ago. Bell, meanwhile, held a 16-point lead in St. Louis County, far larger than Clay’s 4-point lead in the county in his narrow 2020 loss.
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Maya Sweedler, Associated Press editor in Washington, contributed to this report.
