An analyst known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of the presidential election gave his take on how JD Vance could influence the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Professor Allan Lichtman of American University has accurately announced the winner of virtually every presidential election since President Reagan’s re-election in 1984.
Earlier this week, after updating his complicated forecasting model to With President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee, he said Harris is on track to victory.
Lichtman argued on his YouTube channel on Friday that Harris’ advantage is partly due to the fact that Vance would be a “horror show” if Trump were incapacitated and Vance were to become president.
“I don’t think the VP pick affects the election, but a VP pick is incredibly important. That’s why J.D. Vance was such a disastrous pick; he would be a horror show as president.”
He added that choosing a running mate is primarily about having someone who can replace the president if he dies or resigns, which has happened nine times in American history.
A forecaster known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of presidential elections gave his opinion on how JD Vance could influence the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Lichtman said Newsweek that Vance poses a problem because Trump appears more moderate than the Ohio senator.
“In some ways, his positions are even more extreme than Donald Trump’s. For example, on aid to Ukraine or wanting a nationwide ban on abortion with no exceptions for rape, incest or the health of the mother. And Vance has become a lightning rod for criticism,” he said.
Harris, who will announce her vice presidential pick on Monday, has seen her popularity in the polls rise since she announced her candidacy.
Based on Lichtman’s model, which includes thirteen factors or “keys” as he calls them, Harris is currently on track for victory, with less than 100 days to go until Election Day.
Lichtman’s model compares factors with the party currently in the White House, namely the Democrats.
He said he will make his official prediction for the election next month, but Harris has largely tipped his chances of victory in her favor.
“I plan to make my official prediction in August, after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman wrote on X. “See below for my assessment on the 13 Keys Tracker of where the Keys stand NOW.”
Factors that gave Harris an edge include that she had no opponent in the primaries, that there has been little threat from third-party candidates so far, and that the economy is strong in both the short and long term.
Professor Allen Lichtman believes Kamala Harris is on track to win the November election over Donald Trump, despite shifts at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket
With the switch to Harris, the White House has not made a major policy change and the vice president is not confronted with a scandal or major social unrest.
Lichtman noted that with the switch from Biden to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, Democrats have lost one advantage: their position as the sitting president.
Now that Harris and Trump are facing off, the professor believes the race is now effectively open.
However, he noted that Democrats were able to avoid further problems because of the massive shake-up in the party, which overwhelmingly backed Harris, thus avoiding the need for a chaotic open primary and other presidential candidates to enter the race at this late stage.
“I haven’t made a definitive prediction yet. I’ve said I’m going to do it after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman told C-SPAN.
“But I’ve been saying for months, and I’ll keep saying, a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose,” he added. “That could happen, but a lot has to change.”
Lichtman also said the new energy put into Harris’ campaign could have a positive effect on several issues for her, including lower voting for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and further dampening social unrest.
“It’s a mixed bag, Biden dropping out and Harris presumptive,” he said. “But it changes my assessment that a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose, not fundamentally.”
President Biden will speak on July 29, 2024. Professor Lichtman said the president’s withdrawal from the race on July 21 has not fundamentally changed his prediction so far about who will win the November election.
Lichtman’s prediction comes as polls show the presidential race remains very close, with Harris leading the pack.
According to Real Clear Politics, Trump is leading by an average of less than two points in the most recent polls.
Even in the polls in the key states, there is a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, now that Biden is no longer on the Democratic list.
But the latest polls do show a jump in enthusiasm among Democrats, as Lichtman noted. Harris’ approval rating since becoming the presumptive presidential nominee has also risen in recent days.
