WASHINGTON — While a high-profile primary in Missouri underscores divisions among Democrats, Republicans running for office in the state are showing how united they are — at least when it comes to their loyalty to former President Donald Trump.
Sure, Missouri’s airwaves are filled with Republicans fiercely criticizing each other as they vie for the nominations for governor, attorney general and other low-level positions. But that battle is about which candidate has proven most loyal to Trump and his agenda.
For Democrats, however, it is the primary between Rep. Cori Bush and St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell has become an expression of their broader disagreement over how the United States should deal with Israel.
A political action committee affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has spent more than $8 million against Bush, who has accused Israel of a “campaign of ethnic cleansing” following the October 7 Hamas attack. The same PAC has spent nearly $15 million against U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who lost his primary in New York earlier this year.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has maintained his support for Bush, who has also received financial support from progressive groups. In addition to Bush and Bell, two other Democrats are on the ballot.
In the key Republican races, however, Trump is so enthusiastic about the candidates that he could not pick a favorite. Trump supported both the Republicans running for attorney general and three of the nine candidates on the ballot for governor: Jay Ashcroft, Mike Kehoe and Bill Eigel.
Ashcroft is Missouri’s secretary of state and the son of John Ashcroft, the former Missouri governor, U.S. senator and attorney general under President George W. Bush. When he announced his long-awaited run for governor last spring, he had already raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for his campaign account and had the support of a political action committee that had raised more than $1 million.
Kehoe is endorsed by term-limited Gov. Mike Parson and has raised more than $4 million for his race. A PAC backing him, American Dream PAC, has spent more than $8 million on advertising, according to data from AdImpact. Before Parson appointed him lieutenant governor in 2018, Kehoe represented a state Senate district west of Jefferson City that included Cole County.
Eigel, an Air Force veteran, represents a state Senate district that includes part of St. Charles County, north of St. Louis. Eigel and a PAC supporting him have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads. “They’re calling us racist, sexist — God knows what else,” he says, straight into the camera, in an ad in which he Trump’s statement of support“That’s how we know we’ll win.”
While Republican spending on the Missouri governor’s race is outpacing Democrats, Springfield businessman Mike Hamra’s campaign is spending $2.8 million on advertising, according to AdImpact. House Minority Leader Crystal Quad lags far behind in advertising spending, but boasts a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local unions. She represents part of Greene County, where Springfield is located.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
The Missouri primary election is Tuesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. ET.
The Associated Press will announce the voting results and declare the winners of the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, secretary of the treasury, attorney general, and the House of Representatives and Senate.
Any registered voter in Missouri may participate in any party’s primary election.
Bush’s 1st Congressional District is split between St. Louis City and part of St. Louis County, both of which have strongly favored her in recent primaries and general elections. While St. Louis County is predominantly white, the northern portion that falls within the district is more racially diverse, with a significant share of black voters. In general elections, northern St. Louis County and northern St. Louis City are racially diverse Democratic strongholds, while the southern portion of the district has a larger population of white, working-class voters. Bell is perhaps better known in the portion of the district that falls within St. Louis County, where he was elected district attorney in 2018.
In the Republican primary for attorney general, two names appear on the ballot. Trump endorsed both. Incumbent Andrew Bailey is facing a challenge by Will Scharf, a member of the former president’s legal team.
Former Sen. Bob Onder was the only candidate to win Trump’s support in a crowded primary to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer in the 3rd District. Onder is the top fundraiser, followed by former Sen. Kurt Schaefer. Rep. Justin Hicks dropped out of the race, but his name is still on the ballot. Three other Republicans are also on the ballot in the Republican-leaning district.
Senator Josh Hawley is unopposed in his Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Marine veteran Lucas Kunce has a huge financial advantage over Senator Karla May.
The Associated Press does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Missouri does not have automatic recounts, but candidates for federal, judicial and state offices, including the state legislature, can request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5 percent of the vote. Candidates for local offices can request a recount if the margin is less than 1 percent of the vote. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
As of November 2022, there were nearly 4.3 million registered voters in Missouri.
In that year’s primaries, turnout was 8 percent of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 15 percent in the Republican primary. About 8 percent of the votes were cast before primary day.
In the state’s 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 8:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after the polls closed. The election night count ended at 1:08 a.m. ET with 99.8% of the total votes counted.
As of Tuesday, there are 91 days left until the November general election.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
