Climate change will have a major impact on American cities in the coming years as more people leave flood, heat and wildfire danger zones for quieter places.
Scientists told DailyMail.com that several cities are ‘slowly going under’ as residents flee popular waterfront destinations prone to flooding, with many metropolises expected to look ‘drastically different’ within decades.
Areas of Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Providence and Las Vegas are listed as the largest metro regions expected to experience the largest proportional exodus due to flood risk. Meanwhile, relatively “safe zones” such as Jefferson County in Louisville, Kentucky, is seeing an influx of new residents.
Dr Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street Foundation, which produced the peer-reviewed report, told DailyMail.com that people are increasingly basing their moves on climate factors.
“Over the last five years, people have really started paying attention to climate data because it affects their moves,” he said.
“When you couple the flood risk with what we’re already seeing in NASA’s population projections, there are places that look dramatically different.”
Climate change will reshape America’s cities in the coming years. Areas like Minneapolis (pictured), Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Providence and Las Vegas are cited as the largest metro areas expected to experience the largest proportional exodus due to flood risk.
Scientists told DailyMail.com that several cities are ‘slowly dying’ as residents flee popular waterfront destinations prone to flooding.
Polls confirm this. A recent Zillow A report found that 80 percent of Americans consider climate risks when looking for a new home, while Forbes published a survey that found that 30 percent of homeowners said climate change was the reason they moved.
The First Street study identifies the 10 most common climate abandonment areas in America — metropolitan areas where people are leaving en masse due to the increasing risk of climate conditions disrupting their lives and businesses.
Dr. Jeremy Porter is Head of Climate Implications at First Street Foundation
Dr Porter said this initial report focuses only on flooding as a driver. However, researchers added there are clear signs that bushfires and extreme heat are also important drivers of internal migration.
Two counties in Minneapolis, Minnesota, were ranked first and second because of their location on the Mississippi River, which frequently overflows its banks.
Climate change is adding to the problem. A warmer atmosphere means that big storms can dump more rain and overwhelm sewage systems.
Researchers have identified Hennepin County and Ramsey County, which cover much of the city center, as the areas predicted to experience the greatest population decline by 2035.
The number of blocks designated as “climate abandoned” in Hennepin County is expected to increase from 23 percent today to 56.9 percent in 2053.
In Ramsey County, population growth is expected to increase by 29 percent, bringing the percentage of blocks in the area experiencing mass migration to 54.3 percent by 2053.
Dr Porter told DailyMail.com that these regions are struggling with job losses and fewer resources, but flooding is accelerating the exodus.
Pictured: A father and son ride bicycles on flooded sidewalks around Lake Nokomis on Sunday, June 15, 2014, in Minneapolis.
Scientists told DailyMail.com that several cities are ‘slowly dying’ as residents flee popular waterfront destinations prone to flooding. Areas in Indianapolis (pictured) were named in the report as one of the five most at-risk areas for climate abandonment
The U.S. was hit by 23 disasters in an eight-month period in 2023, each causing losses of at least $1 billion (mapped), surpassing the previous annual record of 22 events with ten-figure price tags in 2022.
“They are already seeing emigration due to lack of jobs and socio-economic problems. But climate risks are also affecting the movements… Slowly the city is dying,” he said.
In West Alton, a flood-prone town on the bend of the Mississippi in Ramsey County, the population has plummeted from 3,900 in 1970 to 360 this year.
All three churches in the town are closed and many of the remaining houses are built on stilts to protect them from the advancing water.
Patrick Nunnally, a retired University of Minnesota lecturer and expert on the Mississippi, said towns that once thrived along the river are now “barely standing.”
The First Street report ranks Marion County in Indianapolis third among counties hardest hit by climate migration.
The number of blocks in the region designated as “climate abandoned areas” is expected to increase from 15.3 percent now to 39 percent in 2053.
Milwaukee County, in the center of Wisconsin’s largest city, ranks fourth, followed by Providence County in Rhode Island and Clark County in Las Vegas in sixth.
While some of these cities may seem odd because they are far from a major river or coast, Dr. Porter explains that they are prone to “stormwater flooding,” which overwhelms sewer systems.
Pictured: Flooding turns roads into rivers in Minneapolis after downpour
A man helps two people walk through floodwaters after their car became stuck on Vandeventer Avenue under I-64 (Hwy. 40) in St. Louis, Mo., on Thursday, July 28, 2022
“In Las Vegas, for example, you see the patterns on the loose streets that are a result of the heavy rainfall in that area,” Dr. Porter said.
“This is especially true for medium to large cities, where area infrastructure is often substandard, as the federal government does not factor climate change into stormwater forecasts.”
But domestic ‘climate migrants’ typically move only a few tens of kilometers to escape extreme weather conditions.
“Most of the actions taken in response to climate change are hyper-local,” Dr Porter told DailyMail.com. “In fact, only 15 percent of all domestic moves are across state lines. People tend to stay within their own state.”
While Americans are leaving certain areas, other areas are experiencing an influx.
People are flocking to places like Jefferson County in Louisville, Kentucky; Macomb County in Detroit, Michigan; Newark County in Passaic, New Jersey; Oakland County in Detroit; and San Mateo County in San Francisco, California.
Dr Porter said there is a combination of factors driving people to these places, but it is mainly because they are relatively ‘safe’ zones close to a climate risk area that people are fleeing to.
The First Street report isolates economic, social and other factors of climate change as drivers of migration by using complex mathematical equations.
But the data is easy to translate: people are increasingly taking climate risks into account when considering a move.
“We are seeing property values decline in climate-risk areas. As data becomes more available, we will see more of this,” Dr Porter said.
“Climate literacy has increased dramatically over the last five years and we’re seeing people respond to that,” he added. “This is just the beginning.”
