WASHINGTON — NATO leaders are meeting this week for a summit to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the military alliancewhich has never been so large and focused, but which also faces potential existential threats from outside and within.
If The Russian War in Ukrainechallenges posed by an increasingly aggressive China, and the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza are not enough, the commitment of some key members to defend their allies is being questioned.
There is great uncertainty about the position of President Joe Biden ability to be predecessor, NATO sceptic Donald Trumpin November to lead the alliance’s most powerful member.
While Biden’s political problems are causing concern at home and abroad. Countries in Europe are also struggling with their own problems, such as the rise of far-right populism, particularly in France and Hungary. This poses a threat to what was one of the main pillars of security and stability after World War II.
What to look out for during the three-day summit:
Still reeling from his disastrous June 27 debate performance and struggling with his re-election campaign, Biden says people should look to his interactions at the NATO summit for evidence that he is still strong and decisive enough to lead.
Diplomats and analysts say they will keep a close eye on the situation, though NATO leaders acknowledge they have no control over the US election and are unlikely to comment publicly on it.
“The outcome of the November election is of great importance to NATO and virtually all heads of state and government in the alliance feel the same way, even if they refuse to talk about it,” said Jeff Rathke, president of the American-German Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
The prospect of Trump returning to the White House has alarmed many in Europe, who fear he will reduce or even withdraw U.S. commitments to NATO or Ukraine.
“There is nothing Biden’s NATO colleagues can do to influence that outcome, so they are in the uncomfortable position of being bystanders to a process that is crucial to the alliance but over which they have no control,” Rathke said.
Biden, who takes credit for strengthening NATO and standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said his confidence and competence would be on display.
But he will be under enormous pressure to quell growing concerns that he is not fit to serve as de facto head of NATO or as supreme commander of the alliance’s most important member.
“The unpredictability of what (Trump) could do and how quickly he could do it in office makes people tense,” Rathke said. “It would be a major shock to NATO if he won.”
While Biden is in the spotlight, 31 other leaders have a voice in NATO decision-making. The summit marks the first time British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has appeared on the world stage, just days after winning a landslide election victory.
While Starmer has indicated he remains strongly supportive of both NATO and Ukraine, gains by far-right parties and left-wing groups opposed to Western support for Israel’s war in Gaza could erode London’s influence.
More worrying is the unrest in France, where President Emmanuel Macron’s government faces political uncertainty after left-wing parties united to defeat a rising far-right movement parliamentary elections but still failed to win a majority in parliament. The far-right party, which is skeptical of NATO, has significantly increased the number of seats it holds.
And then there’s Hungary and Turkey, the last two NATO members to refuse to admit the newest members, Finland and Sweden, to the alliance. Hungary’s Viktor Orban sounded the alarm by visiting Russia last week for talks with Putin, and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains on good terms with the Kremlin.
In many ways, the alliance has never looked stronger. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO has gained two new members, bringing its total to 32. At the same time, Eastern and Central European members closer to Russia’s borders — the Baltic states, Poland and the Czech Republic — have stepped up their support for Ukraine and NATO as an institution.
But NATO is fragile. Policy must be determined by unanimous consent, and political unrest in capitals hampers future decision-making. NATO leaders are expected to reaffirm their “open door” policy — that membership is open to any country that meets the requirements. But Ukraine will not see the hoped-for invitation this week.
“In some ways, this NATO summit comes as a kind of the best of times and the worst of times. The best of times, in the sense that the alliance knows what it’s about,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“But it is also a bit of the worst time ever, obviously because of the war in Ukraine, the challenges of increasing European defense spending and concerns about the reliability of the United States,” he said.
One of Trump’s biggest complaints about NATO is defense spending. He has repeatedly said the U.S. would not defend countries that do not meet the agreed-upon goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense.
NATO officials have called for a significant increase — to 23 — in the number of allies meeting that commitment. More are expected to say they meet that standard at the summit.
Many NATO allies have signed their own security agreements with Ukraine over the past year to provide long-term guarantees help for Kiev to defend itself against Russia and prevent possible future attacks.
Russia has made significant gains on the battlefield in recent months amid Congressional delays in approving US military aid, which have been overcome and a new multibillion-dollar package is expected to be announced this week.
But Ukraine’s goal is to join NATO, which would place it under Article 5 of the alliance’s collective security, which obligates other members to defend the country if it is attacked.
Membership is highly unlikely while the conflict rages. However, the allies plan to give Ukraine a “bridge” to membership in which the next steps are further explained.
In the meantime, countries are expected to pledge new military and economic aid. Billions of dollars have already been sent to Ukraine, and officials say more is on the way. Outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday that contributions of about $43 billion a year should be the basis for the future.
NATO allies also focus on the threats posed by China, including ongoing disinformation campaigns aimed at sowing doubts in democratic systems. And they have repeatedly complained that Chinese sales of certain tools and technology have allowed Moscow to rebuild Russia’s defense industry in order to wage war in Ukraine.
The US in particular criticizes China for pursuing policies that threaten European security, while Beijing seeks broader trade ties with European countries.
For the third year in a row, leaders and top officials from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea will attend the NATO summit to discuss addressing Chinese threats in the South China Sea and beyond.
