WASHINGTON — Growing skepticism about President Joe Biden’s re-election chances European leaders heading to NATO’s summit in Washington face the prospect of the military alliance’s biggest critic, Donald Trump, returning to power over its most powerful army.
NATO, made up of 32 European and North American allies committed to defending each other from armed attack, will emphasize strength through solidarity as it marks its 75th anniversary at the summit that begins Tuesday. Event host Biden, who pulled allies into a global network to help Ukraine fight The Russian invasioncalled the alliance the most united ever.
But behind the scenes, a dominant theme will be preparation for potential division as far-right forces hostile to NATO grow in power in the US and other countries. countries including Franceraising concerns about how strong support for the alliance will remain and the military aid that its members send to Ukraine.
During the presidential debate, Biden asked Trump, “Are you going to stay in NATO or withdraw from NATO?” Trump tilted his head and shrugged.
Biden’s poor debate performance caused a frenzy over whether the 81-year-old president suitable for office or should resign as Democratic presidential candidate.
Even before the debate, European governments were already busy discussing what they could do to ensure that NATO, Western support for Ukraine and the security of individual NATO countries will remain intact if Trump regains the presidential election in November and tempers US contributions.
Some Americans and Europeans call it NATO’s “Trump-proofing” – or “future-proofing” when the political progress of other far-right political blocs are included in Europe.
This week’s summit, held in the city where the mutual defense alliance was founded in 1949, was once supposed to be a celebration of NATO’s endurance. Now, a European official said, things are looking “bleak.”
There are two reasons for the gloom: Russian advance on the battlefield in the months that Trump-allied Republicans in Congress delayed delivery of US weapons and financing to Ukraine. And the possibility of far-right governments who were hostile to NATO’s takeover.
The official spoke to reporters last week on condition of anonymity to discuss private government talks.
Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow on NATO at the independent think tank Atlantic Council, says she has a blunt message for Europeans: “Freaking about a second Trump term doesn’t help anyone.”
For allies at the summit, she said, the key will be to resist the temptation to dwell on the details of unprecedented events in American politics and bow their heads to preparation of western military aid for Ukraine and prepare for a possible reduction in US support.
Trump, who before and after his presidency spoke with admiration about Russian President Vladimir Putin And hard from NATOoften focuses his complaints on the American share of the alliance’s costs. Biden himself warned almost 30 years ago about the already persistent criticism of Europeans who do not carry their weight in NATO.
The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 lulled the West into thinking that the Russian threat had been neutralized, leading to cuts in military spending. Now NATO allies are beefing up their forces to counter any further aggression from Putin, and a record 23 countries are in NATO achieving defense spending targets.
Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, says that in a second term, Trump would work to get the U.S. out of NATO. Congress passed legislation last year that makes that harder, but a president could simply stop cooperating on some or all NATO missions.
Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.
Elections in Francealso seem intent on helping a NATO-hostile far-right party led by Marine Le Pen gain more power. Far-right forces are also win in Germany.
Some European officials and analysts say this is simply the rise and fall of voter loyalty in democracies that NATO has dealt with before. They point to Poland, where a right wing party lost power last year and whose people are among NATO’s most ardent supporters. They also point to Italy, where right-wing populist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has won praise as an ally.
Partly in response to political turmoil in the United States, Europeans say they want to “institutionalize” support for Ukraine within NATO, reducing dependence on the US.
European allies also failed to send enough weapons to Ukraine during the delay in a US aid package, outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged during a visit to Washington last month.
“That is one of the reasons why I believe we should have a stronger NATO role – that role in providing support,” Stoltenberg told reporters.
One initiative likely to be supported at the summit is: NATO takes greater responsibility for training coordination and military and financial support for the Ukrainian armed forces, rather than the US. Europeans also talk about giving Ukrainians a greater presence within NATO bodies, although there is no consensus yet on Ukraine joining the alliance.
Europeans say NATO countries are coordinating statements on Ukraine for the summit to make clear, for example, that further Russian escalation would be met with substantial new sanctions and other punishment from the West. That’s even if the US, under Trump, does not act.
On NATO security in general, European allies are not only increasing their defense spending but also focusing on defense strategies that are less dependent on the U.S. There is also increasing emphasis on ensuring that each country has the ability to raise armies and fight wars, the European official said.
The possibility of a less reliable American partner under Trump is fueling discussions about Europeans playing a greater role in NATO’s nuclear deterrent, according to the Poland-based security think tank Centre for Eastern Studies. The US now plays the determining role in the nuclear weapons stationed in Europe.
But European countries and Canada, with their smaller military budgets and economies, are still years away from being able to fill a US-sized hole in NATO.
“If an American president comes into office and says, ‘We’re done with this,’ then there’s certainly a will in Europe to take on the American role,” said John Deni, a senior fellow on security at the Atlantic Council. “The British would jump on it.”
But “even they will recognize that they don’t have the capacity or the capability, and they can’t do it at the speed and the scale that we can,” Deni said. “The idea that we’re somehow going to Trump-proof or future-proof the American commitment — whether to Ukraine or to NATO — is, I think, largely fantasy.”
