AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Nevada’s state primaries

    AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Nevada’s state primaries

    WASHINGTON — Voters in the key swing state of Nevada is topping the polls for the second (or, in some cases, third) time this year to select the candidates who will appear in some of this fall’s most competitive legislative races.

    After holding both presidential primaries and a presidential caucus in FebruaryOn Tuesday, Nevadans will vote in primaries for Congress and the state legislature. The state’s congressional delegation currently consists of five Democrats and one Republican. Tuesday’s big races include the Republican primaries for Senate and in the three Democratic-held congressional districts.

    First-term Sen. Jacky Rosen, whose seat will likely be one of the most important in determining the balance of power in the Senate this fall, faces two Democratic challengers in program manager Troy Walker and taxpayer Mike Schaefer. She has significantly outraised her current and potential opponents, with more than $10 million under her belt. The next best-funded candidate, Republican Sam Brown, has raised $7 million this cycle and spent $4.6 million of that.

    Brown, an Army veteran who unsuccessfully sought the Nevada Senate nomination last cycle, and former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter are the only two Republican Senate candidates to have raised at least $1 million. Brown has more party support, with support from the state Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and support from the National Republican Senate Committee. The busy field too includes Jim Marchant, a prominent supporter of former President Donald Trump and promoter of the false narrative surrounding fraud in the 2020 election. Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the race.

    There are also key races for Nevada’s 1st, 3rd and 4th congressional districts on the Republican side. These three districts all include at least part of Clark County, home to Las Vegas, and are currently represented by Democratic incumbents Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford. The 2nd District incumbent, Mark Amodei, faces a poorly funded challenger and Democrats are not fielding a candidate in the conservative district.

    The former is considered the safest for the incumbent president, as Titus is the longest-tenured Democratic representative in the state and had one of the larger margins of victory in 2022 at 6 percentage points. Still, that hasn’t stopped business owner Flemming Larsen from lending his campaign $1.5 million. The field also includes Mark Robertson, a retired Army colonel who lost to Titus in 2022.

    There are seven Republicans seeking the nomination in the 3rd District, which is potentially the state’s most competitive race. The main fundraiser is Daniel Schwartz, former Nevada State Treasurer. His opponents include former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien, who casts herself as a strong Trump supporter, with support from Marchant and Trump advisers Roger Stone and Michael Flynn.

    The 4th District has the smallest field, with just three candidates. Financial advisor and industry veteran David Flippo has narrowly outspent former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee. Lee also previously served in the state legislature as a Democrat – switching his party affiliation to Republican in 2022. Flippo sought a seat in the state Assembly in 2022 but fell short in the Republican primary.

    Here’s what to expect on primary night:

    The primaries in the state of Nevada will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 10pm ET.

    The Associated Press will report on the votes and announce the winners in 43 contested primaries for Senate, House of Representatives, Senate, National Assembly and Washoe County Commissioner. The key races are both the Democratic and Republican primaries for the Senate, as well as the Republican primaries for the 1st, 3rd and 4th Houses.

    Registered party members may only vote in the primaries of their own party. In other words, Democrats cannot vote in Republican primaries, and vice versa. Nevada has that too same day registrationallowing new voters to register at the polls on Tuesday or during the early voting period.

    The top county in statewide elections — and in most congressional races — is Clark County, where nearly three out of four Nevadans live. The 1st and 3rd Districts fall entirely within Clark, while the 4th includes the northern suburbs of Las Vegas, plus at least part of five other counties.

    Nevada is generally among the slower counting states. Every voter in Nevada automatically receives a mail-in ballot unless he or she opts out, and county officials will accept mail-in ballots up to four days after Election Day, provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day. Since mail-in ballots will continue to arrive until June 15, a close race where the number of mail-in ballots could impact the outcome could delay a race.

    This year the The Minister of Foreign Affairs has encouraged the provinces to begin mapping in-person votes on Election Day and ballots received before Election Day during the early voting period. These recommendations are intended to release more results faster. Early voting started on May 25 and ended on June 7.

    Regardless of the number of ballots shown at poll close, Nevada will not release results until the last voter in line has cast their vote at poll close. Because of this rule, the state often requires at least an hour after polls close to ensure everyone has a chance to vote before the first results are announced.

    The ballots include the option “none of these candidates” (a selection made by Republican voters). on a remarkable scale during the February presidential primaries). However, in the event that the highest vote-getter in a primary is “none of these candidates,” the second-highest vote-getter would advance to the general election, and AP would therefore declare that candidate the winner.

    The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

    Nevada does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates can request and pay for a recount within three days of the county or statewide election.

    As of January 1, there were 2,278,385 registered voters in Nevada. Of those, 31% were Democrats, 28% Republicans and 34% independent.

    In February’s presidential primary, turnout was 19% of the approximately 703,000 registered voters in the Democratic primary and 13% of the approximately 639,000 registered voters in the Republican primary. Nevada Republicans held firm both a primary and a caucus in February, and while registered Republicans could vote in both, Trump only filed for the caucuses. About 90% of Democratic votes and 85% of Republican votes in the primaries were cast by mail or before Election Day.

    In addition to a one-week in-person early voting period, all registered voters in Nevada will receive a primary ballot in the mail unless they opt out. As of June 5, a total of 188,846 people had cast their votes before Election Day. About 45% were cast in the Democratic primaries and 40% in the Republican primaries.

    During the Feb. 6 presidential primary, the AP first reported results at 11:37 p.m. ET, or one hour and 37 minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 4:36 a.m. ET with approximately 84% of the total votes counted.

    As of Tuesday, there are 147 days until the November general election.

    WATCH VIDEO

    DOWNLOAD VIDEO

    Advertisement